SYRIA IN CONTEXT - CORONAVIRUS UPDATE #21
Dear friends and colleagues,
In recent weeks, Syria in Context has been making our COVID-19 coverage available as a free supplement in English, as well as in Arabic. We would like to give an extra special thanks to Heinrich Böll Stiftung this week whose assistance, along with the ongoing support of our valued subscribers, enabled us to put additional resources into our work covering COVID-19 in Syria.
This week, we are pleased to share with you something we have been working on with Imperial College's WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) and other partners in recent weeks.
Back in July, we reached out to Imperial for help modelling our assumptions of the virus in Syria and it began a collaboration into the use of novel data sources in ascertaining mortality rates in states like Syria, where official data is scarce. The research showed that "only 1.25% of deaths (sensitivity range 1%-3%) due to COVID-19 are reported in Damascus." The hope is that this report is the beginning of a body of work using this approach to better understand the true scale of the virus globally.
As a team who care deeply about Syria and Syrians, it has been a privilege to have the support available to do the deep and difficult research work required to show the true impact of COVID-19 in the country. Work we hope to continue, though which may look slightly different moving forward. None of this would have been possible without Heinrich Böll Beirut, our subscribers, and most importantly without the dozens of Syrians who have worked with us on this reporting, many of whom took significant risks to do so. We hope it will be a useful contribution to the efforts to relieve suffering in Syria and other fragile states.
This week, PBS Newshour also aired a report Syria in Context collaborated on in August.
Thank you,
Emma, Tobias and Asser
Syria in Context will continue to cover the impact and response to COVID-19 in Syria throughout the coming weeks. You can find previous updates on our website.
We are a wholly subscriber-funded publication. If you have found this update useful, we encourage you to consider joining our growing community by subscribing.
WEEKLY COVID-19 UPDATE
COVID-19 cases are on the rise in all areas of Syria, with the latest statistics out of the northwest painting a worrying picture. Official figures continue to lag far behind reality–– with 4,945 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Syria as of September 15. Of these, 3,614 were recorded in government-controlled areas, including 160 deaths and 871 recoveries, while 2,583 cases remain active. The northwest has conducted 7,776 Coronavirus tests, 422 of which have returned positive. In northeast Syria there are 909 cases so far, indicating community spread across the region (low testing rates suggest the true caseload outpaces official figures). Syria in Context believes that the government’s figures vastly understate the scale of the outbreak and that “only 1.25% of deaths (sensitivity range 1%-3%) due to COVID-19 are reported in Damascus.”
Government-Controlled: Over three million Syrian students went back to school on Sunday in spite of public appeals, even from other Syrian officials, for the Ministry of Education to delay the school year. Photos of the minister in schools with impeccable preventative measures on the first day were juxtaposed on social media with hundreds of others from schools where students were crammed together and where there was no running water. High profile figures, such as the Dean of Damascus University’s Faculty of Medicine, criticized the decision. The Minister of Education, in response, publicly wondered why the dean does not shut down hospitals before asking him to shut down schools. The dean was removed days later. The Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Health also engaged in a public dispute about the decision. Reopening schools is likely to raise infection rates, as children interact in close proximity and, while they do not often experience serious health implications themselves, can pass the virus onto teachers or families at home. It is likely a spike in the virus spread will follow this decision. Nevertheless, the Syrian government continues to say that the COVID-19 outbreak in its territories is slowing down. After registering 60 cases on September 11, the daily number of infections announced by the Ministry of Health dropped on September 12, 13, and 14, to 30, 34, and 36, respectively. These figures are false and do not represent the real scale of the outbreak.
Northwest: A sudden spike in cases in the northwest, with 155 of the area’s 422 cases being recorded in 48 hours on Monday and Tuesday this week, suggests the virus could be spreading out of control across the vulnerable opposition-held territories. The COVID-19 tests carried out on September 14 returned with an alarming 50% positive cases, with 80 of 160 tests positive. On Tuesday 15, 75 of 280 tests were positive, a 27% positive rate. A high positivity rate means it’s likely that the tests are not picking up all of the cases, with around 5% positivity being a threshold for a country being on top of an outbreak according to experts. The majority of the cases are in north Aleppo––156 versus Idlib’s 85––with 104 of these in Al-Bab alone. Idlib city and Dana sub-districts are the next worst affected, with Azaz, Jarabalus, and Ghandorah close behind. Three people have so far died and 103 have recovered, including Dr. Adnan Jasem from Al-Bab hospital. There have reportedly also been cases in the ranks of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army as well as HTS with local disputes growing about the source of the outbreak. The local authorities blame a lack of social distancing, while others blame smuggling from government-held areas. It is likely both are to blame, along with a health system decimated by years of conflict. Two new labs have been set up, one in Idlib and one in Afrin, in order to increase the vulnerable region’s testing capacity.
Northeast: In total, 909 cases have been registered in northeastern Syria, of whom 47 died and 296 recovered. Local reports on September 14 said that over 100 healthcare workers have gotten sick so far. In spite of the continuing spike in the number of infections, the AANES decided to reopen wedding and funeral venues and houses of worship and allow other gatherings. The region’s testing capacity is still very limited.
Neighbouring countries: As of September 15, Lebanon has recorded 25,401 COVID-19 cases, with 246 deaths and 8,765 recoveries. In Turkey, there are 292,878 cases recorded, leading to 7,119 deaths and 260,058 recoveries. In Iran, 407,353 cases of COVID-19 have been recorded, with 23,453 deaths and 349,984 recoveries. Iraq has 294,478 cases, of whom 8,086 died and 229,132 recovered. In Jordan, there have been 3,528 cases of COVID-19, with 26 deaths and 2,255 recoveries. The first cases were reported in Al-Azrak camp in Jordan on September 8, with two cases leading to an intensive intervention to ensure the virus does not spread within the camp.
Syria in Context will continue to cover the impact and response to COVID-19 in Syria throughout the coming weeks. You can find previous updates on our website.
We are a wholly subscriber-funded publication. If you have found this update useful, we encourage you to consider joining our growing community:
SYRIA IN CONTEXT is a subscription newsletter edited by Emma Beals and Tobias Schneider and written with Asser Khattab. You can follow us on twitter @SyriaContext or email us.
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